For the first time since modern records were started a tropical cyclone is lined up to hit Iran in the next few hours.
Super Cyclonic Storm Gonu is unprecedented cyclone also has winds of over 150 mph, and with a central pressure of 898 mb it's the strongest storm ever recorded in the Arabian sea. It has already hit Oman's Gas Terminal and ports but it is heading at a country that has never had to deal with this problem in living memory.
Arabian Business lists the possible weather effects
- Storm surge generally 4.0-5.5 metres (13-18 feet) above normal.
- Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.
- Terrain lower than 3 metres (10 feet) above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 10 km (6 miles).
Jeff Master's Blog at Weather Underground points to the problem.
Imagine that you live directly on the Gulf, but in a place where it hardly ever rains, and where a hurricane has never hit, for at least a generation -- for more than sixty years. Your community and many like yours are situated not only directly on the water, but near or in large dry riverbeds on the coastal plain, which is a narrow strip of sandy shoreline that is the dropoff for the three-thousand-foot mountain range behind it. Even many of the roads up into the mountains are in these dry riverbeds, which course through deep canyons as they rise into the heights. You don't have any idea what it might mean to experience winds of over 100 miles per hour, whipping up sand, and torrential rain against these mountains that can turn the riverbeds into conduits for dangerous flash floods. And you don't have any idea what storm surge is, and can't conceive of wind-driven high waves that could break against the shoreline and leave nothing behind.
This is the eastern coast of Oman, where communities line the shoreline which is shortly going to be experiencing a major hurricane. We can only hope that the danger is understood and that all of these communities have evacuated to higher ground and a safer location.
Masters is talking about construction like this, where the buildings go right to the coast on a flat plain.
If the storm doesn't weaken, then we may have a major humanitarian disaster in the Gulf, let alone the possibility of damage to the oil infrastructure that these countries rely on to keep their economies going.
Update at 1500 GMT : Updated Track
WTIO31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
- TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 61.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
It's weaking as it goes over the land, and is now a Cat 3. the 12 Hour prediction is
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 22.8N 60.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT